by Jim Dandy

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. Its been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But, baseball has marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and could be again.
Darth Vader, Star Wars: A New Hope

Do you hear that? The zippers, the cracking sound of wood on leather, the footfalls in the dirt, the yelling, the cheering, the oohs and aahs? Those are the sounds of ATF agents raiding Gary Matthews, Jr.'s home. That means that yet another baseball season is upon us, and thus, I am required to write another article full of incorrect predictions and Boston homerism. AND SO IT BEGINS...

TIER 1: Probably in the playoffs
BOSTON
This team was hammered by injuries last year, depriving them of stability in the rotation, lineup and outfield defense (highlighted by The Adventures of Wily Mo in Right last year), and Beckett made plenty of stupid pitches (36 HR allowed, a career high). Coming into this year, they traded the fragile Trot Nixon for the slightly less fragile JD Drew and picked up about 100 points in career OPS, found a shortstop who wasn't going to hit under .200 for months at a time in Julio Lugo, and grabbed what many consider to be the best pitcher on the market in Dice-K. Barring injury, I expect the Sawx to be the team to beat in the AL East.

DETROIT
Good Lord is their rotation fantastic. Take Guitar Hero out of the mix, and maybe we're looking at the defending World Series champions here. Nate Robinson is said to have picked up a third pitch in the offseason, and you throw him in the mix with Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth and even without Kenny Rogers (who played an important role teaching this team how to win last year), they'll do very well. And Sheffield is a nice addition to a lineup that occasionally lacked power last year.

You wail on that fake axe, hoss.

MINNESOTA
A team that has the best pitcher in the game (Johan Santana) and probably three of the top 25 players (Mauer, Morneau and Hunter), but with Liriano down, I don't think their rotation quite has what it takes to win the division. I do think they'll be the wild card this year, and keep an eye on Michael Cuddyer to vault up to the same level as his teammates. Also, when is Joe Nathan finally going to have his praises sung like he deserves? He's consistently been one of, if not the best closer in the game, and he never gets more than a passing nod from people looking at this team. "Joe Nathan's automatic." Damn straight he is.

OAKLAND
I don't like the AL West. Oakland has no trustworthy front end starter or closer (sorry, but Harden, Blanton and Street have burned me plenty in fantasy, and they've burned the A's plenty, too). The Angels have a weak lineup around Vlad and Gary "Suddenly Hits for Power" Matthews, the Rangers have no bullpen and a mediocre rotation, and the Mariners signed Jose Vidro, Jeff Weaver and Jarrod Washburn as their big pickups in the offseason. I guess Oakland wins by default, since Piazza will probably give them a little more pop in the order, but the Angels have more pitching.

PHILADELPHIA
All due respect to Mets fans, but Jimmy Rollins might be right here. Ryan Howard is one of the best sluggers in the game, and he's got solid protection in the order from Chase Utley and Pat Burrell, and the Phillies' rotation of Cole Hamels, Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber and Brett Myers is superior to anyone else in the NL East, and possibly than anyone in the National League. And no, no Brett Myers jokes.

ATLANTA
Smoltz: An average year for him is still better than a good year for 90% of the pitchers out there.
Tim Hudson: comeback year.
Andruw Jones: contract year.
Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur: breakout years.
Too many years here. And their bullpen is great.

SAN DIEGO
Nobody in the NL West has a whole hell of a lot of offense, but Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Green, I'm feeling huge years out of them, and the Brothers Giles will provide adequate offense. But their staff is awesome--Peavy and Maddux bringing up the front, The Gout bringing up the rear, with Hoffman closing. This is where they have their edge.

TIER 2: Could play themselves into the post season
YANKEES
Every year I think this is the year they get too old, too hurt. Every year I'm wrong. Whatever. Eventually I'll be right.

TORONTO
Gustavo Chacin isn't hitting his spots this spring, and BJ Ryan is great against everybody but the Red Sox and Yankees. They've got some exciting young players, especially in the outfield, but without anyone consistently good behind Doc Halladay, it won't happen yet.

CLEVELAND
STAT NERD ALERT: Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem says that the Indians should have won 11 more games than they actually did last year. They didn't because their bullpen was absolutely abominable. So they added Joe Borowski. I'm not convinced he's the answer. See: sucking for the Cubs.

ANGELS
Got a good staff, but the only person other than Vlad Guerrero they have hitting for STEROIDS them is STEROIDS Gary Matthews STEROIDS, Jr. STEROIDS. He had STEROIDS a good year STEROIDS last STEROIDS year, but STEROIDS will it STEROIDS last? I'm not STEROIDS so convinced STEROIDS INVESTIGATION IN WHICH HE WAS NAMED AS A CLIENT.

METS
Sweet Jesus can they hit the hell out of the ball, but I firmly believe their postseason hopes ride on Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. Until Pedro comes back, and then again shortly after he goes back on the DL, those are the three pitchers behind El Douche...Duque and Glavine. If Maine and Perez pitch as well as they did last postseason, they'll make the playoffs and me and Jimmy Rollins will look stupid. I'm used to it, but I'm not so sure Rollins is.

No way, baby.

HOUSTON
I'm so iffy on the NL Central that I'm not even bothering to fake it. Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings (recently liberated from Colorado) give them a good one-two punch at the front of the rotation, and their back end is decent. Lidge is ready to come back to form any time now, and Lance Berkman will have a huge year with a healthy Morgan Ensberg and Carlos Lee hitting around him. But that park is a damn bandbox, and the NL Central will be almost as wild as the AL Central this year.

CINCINNATI
Yeah, I said it. But think about it--moderately good pitching, led by Bronson Pinchot and Aaron Harang (who has the best name in baseball--it sounds like the sound a knife makes just after it was thrown into a tree. HARANG!), a solid lineup led by Adam Dunn and some crackhead, and a decent enough bullpen that, if it gets better, might propel them into the postseason.

I smoke rocks, man.

MILWAUKEE
Prince Fielder's like his dad if he didn't swing at everything. So he's good. They're a young team and if Ben Sheets can stay healthy, he'll take pressure off Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, and they've got an excellent closer in Francisco Cordero. So we'll see.

ST. LOUIS
Same story as the Yankees. They're a little bit older, a little bit more hurt, and for some reason, they keep winning. Tony LaRussa got a DWI.

DODGERS
They need a breakout year from a young bat to win the division this year. Great rotation, sure. And they're a trendy World Series pick, but I think it's just nostalgia from a bunch of crusty old reporters, who see a gaggle of guys in the starting lineup that are pretty much their age (Luis Gonzalez, Jeff Kent, Nomah). Little do they know, Juan Pierre pretty much sucks ass.

TIER 3: Need everything to fall into place to make the playoffs
TAMPA BAY
Once again, you all think I'm insane, but I really like Kazmir, Crawford, Upton, Delmon Young, Baldelli and Edwin Jackson. They're not there yet, but they seem to be finally moving in the right direction.

BALTIMORE
This might be a little high for them, but they're too mediocre to be cruel to. Bedard and Cabrera are going to be stars, and Chris Ray might be too, but their offense is sluggish and elderly.

WHITE SOX
Completely unimpressive offseason. They offloaded an innings eater in Freddy Garcia for no particularly good reason, and they're hitting Darren Erstad leadoff. He doesn't get on base a whole ton. On an unrelated note, I want an openly gay umpire in the league, so Ozzie Guillen has an excuse to continue being a complete psychopath.

TEXAS
They've got a good lineup, but a weak rotation (Kevin Millwood is their ace. Tells you all you need to know) and a weaker bullpen. But they're getting better.

FLORIDA
Not...quite...there yet. This is an absurdly young team, but they've got a ton of potential. Dontrelle Willis also got a DWI.

CUBS
Outside of Carlos Zambrano, their pitching is pretty craptacular. Ted Lilly could be better this year just from the switch, but I'm not buying it, and it sounds like Soriano is finally becoming the outfield liability everyone predicted he would.

ARIZONA
Again with the NL West team that needs a good year from a young bat, only the difference here is they're ALL young bats, so they're pretty much all unknowns. The NL West has four of the best staffs in the majors (Schmidt, Penny, Randy Wolf on the Dodgers, Brandon Webb, The Mullet, and Livan Hernandez on the Diamondbacks and Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Matt Morris and Noah Lowry in San Francisco), and four of the least inspiring offenses in the majors.

SAN FRANCISCO
This is another team that needs a good year from a young bat. Only problem is, they don't have one. The Giants' locker room probably smells like Ben Gay and mothballs.

Thanks to Life Alert, you can live alone without ever being alone.

COLORADO
This is the only NL West team that has a decent offense, but they have no pitching. Case and point: Byung-Hyun Kim is in their starting rotation.

TIER 4: It's probably better not to say too much about these poor people.
KANSAS CITY
They signed Gil Meche to a 4-year, $55 million contract in the offseason. They probably would have been better served signing [Editor's note: Jim, I don't think anybody knows who Gil De Ferran is.]
[Jim's note: Dennis Miller can talk about the Peloponnesian Wars on Monday Night Football and I can't make a reference to a mid-90s Indy Car driver?]
[Editor's note: Dennis Miller was fired from Monday Night Football.]
[Jim's note: Fine, then find me a famous Gil so I can finish the joke.]
[Editor's note: Dennis Miller was fired from Monday Night Football.]
[Jim's note:...point well taken.]

Gil De Ferran.

SEATTLE
Big offseason signings: Jose Vidro, Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver. Their stadium is purdy.

WASHINGTON
We could be looking at historically bad. Their ace, John Patterson, won 1 game last year. ONE. Brutal.

PITTSBURGH
Jason Bay or Freddy Sanchez should be an All Star! This is the one team in this section of the list that has an inkling of hope--decent young pitching, decent young hitting, but I doubt they put it together this year.

PLAYOFF PICKS:
Twins over the Red Sox
Tigers over the A's
Phillies over the Astros
Padres over the Braves

Tigers over the Twins
Phillies over the Padres

Tigers over the Phillies for the world title.