by Jim Dandy

We’re right around the quarter way point for the baseball season, and what better time for knee-jerk predictions than at an arbitrary cutoff point 3 months before the games really matter! Seriously, though, by the 40, 41 game mark, some things cease to be hot starts and start to turn into good years. And it’s a good time to peer into the crystal ball and see what might be coming.

American League

What I like:
Baltimore. Baltimore has been playing out of their tree so far. They’ve been hitting the cover off the ball, particularly Brian Roberts, and Sammy Sosa hasn’t been doing anything yet. Wait until he gets a chance to cork his bats up, and then see how good they’re doing. Their starting pitching, while young, has been fantastic, and with the run support they’re getting, fantasy-wise, their starters should have good everything except ERA and WHIP.

Boston. Confession, if you didn’t already figure it out: I’m a Sawx fan. And, not to gloat, but a few members of the community who have been there through our travels might remember me saying Matt Clement is a great pickup for Boston. Turns out I was right. So far. On top of that, you’ve got Bronson Pinchot Arroyo pitching lights out, and Schilling and Wells on the DL. These guys are going to be rough come September and October.

ChiSox. Where the hell did this come from? Sweet Jesus, they’re scoring runs, their pitchers are throwing great, and all of a sudden these guys have the best record in the majors. They have led at some point in every game they’ve played so far, and they’re 14-5 in one run games. I have NO idea what this is about, and I have even less of a clue if they can keep it up. Minnesota seems like they’re winning every day the Sox lose. I don’t know. Keep an eye on them for the wild card.

Johan Santana. Went almost a calendar year without losing. He’s amazing.

John Garland & Mark Buehrle. Buster Olney’s blog on ESPN.com has a story (Insider only, sorry) about how Buehrle never shakes off a sign from his catcher, just throws what the guy tells him to. Garland noticed this, and decided to do the same thing. The two are now a combined 15-1. And the hysterical part of this? Their catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, the guy called a “cancer” by his pitchers in San Francisco.

Brian Roberts. He’s already more than doubled his home run totals from a year ago, and if you look at all the long doubles he hit last year, it’s fairly clear that his power isn’t due to a complex understanding of chemistry. He’s also third in batting average (.370), hits (on pace for just over 200) and RBI (30, on pace for more than 120), first in runs, and second in homers, on base percentage and steals. That’s just ridiculous.

What I Don’t Like:
Oakland: Hit the damn ball already! This is Moneyball at its worst. For those who don’t know, Moneyball is the theory that you go after players who get on base a lot—high on base percentage. That’s great and all, but at this point they seem to be waiting for the other team to walk in a run for them. There’s a BIG BLACK LINE between patience and lack of aggression. The A’s are completely lacking in aggression. Also: dump Dotel. He’s not working out too good.

Cleveland: Come on. Caam ahn. Caaaaam aaahn. Aah?
The Indians were supposed to compete for the AL Central crown this year. Their kids were finally going to come of age. Instead, they’re playing like crap and, if not for the Royals (returned from their brief foray into mediocrity), would be bringing up the rear of the division. Coco Crisp (swear to God, here's his bio) is more concerned with his rap album than the game, and what’s up with Travis Hafner, a sneaky late round fantasy pickup for the last few years? All his stats are down from last year, and last year was supposed to be the start of a trend, not a fluke.

Closers: This goes for both leagues. Keith Foulke’s ERA is over 7, Mariano Rivera blew a few saves in April, and Octavio Dotel just blew. Armando Benitez spared the Giants about 15 late-season lost leads by demolishing his hammy, HHH style (trying to put Felipe Alou through a table, oddly enough) and Danny Kolb is alternating between “good closer” and “no wonder he used to play for the Brewers.” Also, the Cubs (need I say more?) It seems like the only name who can still get anyone out is Joe Nathan. The White Sox are using a committee (Hermanson and Takatsu). All the healthy ones should come around at some point, though. It’s mostly just early season mechanical problems. Except Dotel. He sucks.

NL Transplants: Adrian Beltre and Edgar Renteria are both hitting like crap, Richie Sexon’s batting average is about 50 points lower than his career average, and Randy Johnson isn’t pitching like the Big Unit (I remember hearing somewhere that his wife gave him that nickname. Yeah, you keep telling yourself it’s because he’s 6’11”, Peter Gammons). The plus side: they’re all in a period of adjustment. I fully expect Renteria and Sexon’s averages to climb after the all star break, and Beltre to just hit better overall, once they’re used to AL pitching. Don’t count on loads of power from Beltre, though. Safeco’s still a pitcher’s park. Look for a lot of doubles from him, and for his RBI numbers to continue being above average.

PREDICTIONS:
AL East: Boston
Before anyone goes whining about me being a homer, look at this: they haven’t been playing well this year at all, and they’re still only 2 games back.

AL Central: Minnesota
They just keep creeping up on the White Sox. I think they’re going to very slowly, very quietly walk off and hide with this division. It’ll be closer than in the past, but it’ll still be comfortable.

AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of America of North America of the Western and Northern Hemispheres of Earth of the Milky Way
Making up for their intolerably stupid name by being the best team in the American League.

AL Wild Card: Baltimore
The White Sox will take this to the last weekend, but I have more faith in Brian Roberts’ hot start than I do in the White Sox’ record in one-run games.

Divisional: Angels over Baltimore, Boston over Minnesota
ALCS: Angels over Boston (Redemption!)

National League

What I Like:
Washington: Go Nats! Baseball belongs in DC. That is all.

St. Louis: Damn, the Cards are good. They can hit. They’re right near the top of the NL in runs, hits, RBI, OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage), homers and slugging percentage. And their pitching is great, too. They’re top 5 in the NL in wins, WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), strikeout/walk ratio, ERA and opponents’ OPS. And Jeff Suppan hasn’t run them out of any games. Yet. I don’t expect any of that to change. Except maybe Suppan.

Florida: The only team consistently ahead of the Cardinals in team pitching statistics. I fully expect Dontrelle Willis’ arm to fall off and flop around the mound at some point. Until then, his ERA should stay under 2 and he shouldn’t lose more than one or two games. And Mike Lowell hasn’t started hitting yet, a big reason for them being in second place in the NL East. Once he does, their entire offense will be tough to stop. They’re very good this year.

Ex-Red Sox Pitchers: Pedro Martinez is 4-1 and throwing great, Derek Lowe’s ERA is hovering around 3, and Brandon Lyon is right around the top of the major leagues in saves (though he’s hurt now). Everyone who said Pedro’s pitching was better suited to the NL, and that the lack of a designated hitter would add an inning a game to his stats was absolutely right. Now that Lowe is in a pitchers’ park, he’s flourishing. And Bob Melvin, the Diamondbacks’ manager, loves Lyon’s stuff and makeup, but Melvin also loves the sauce, so I think we should wait a little while to judge.

Clint Barmes: Colorado’s Rookie of the Year favorite. He’s leading the majors in batting average, and he’s on pace for 30 homers and over 100 RBI. And the greatest thing about him is he’s not a Coors Field fluke. He’s hitting .333 away from home this year. He’s going to be a very good player, and probably someone the Rockies can build around.

What I Don’t Like:
Houston: Much like Oakland, HIT THE DAMN BALL ALREADY! Unlike Oakland, they’re not moneyballers. They just can’t hit. And pitching isn’t a problem, either. They just can’t hit. To be fair, Lance Berkman started the season hurt and Jeff Bagwell might have to retire because of recurring shoulder problems. But still, how is Roger Clemens 3-2 with a 1.29 ERA after 9 starts? And on that note,

Roger Clemens: Just because, turncoat piece of slime-filled platypus crap.

Philadelphia: This is a team that was supposed to compete for the NL East crown this year, but instead they’re bringing up the rear. Some nights they can pitch but not hit. Some nights they can hit but not pitch. And a lot of nights, they can’t do much of either. They’re in the bottom 5 of the NL in ERA and opponents’ batting average on the pitching side, and the bottom 5 in runs scored, team batting average, OPS, and RBI. Jim Thome’s hurt, which is killing them on the offensive side. But the only solid, consistent pitching they can manage is out of Billy Wagner, their closer. And they have to, you know, be actually, like, leading the game for him to pitch.

Barry Bonds: There are three reasons why the Giants would be in last place in any other division (spared the “honor” by the blissfully terrible Colorado Rockies).
1. Jason Schmidt is hurt.
2. Barry’s hurt.
3. Barry has become a complete circus.
The Giants don’t know what the hell is going on with him. He keeps screwing up his rehab. And he insists on surrounding himself with people of questionable ethics, meaning his federally-indicted, steroid peddling personal trainer, and his surgeon, who is this close ::holds fingers REALLY close together, like your parents did:: to having his license revoked. Not to mention the whole federal investigation into his mistress/tax shelter thing. If the Giants could feasibly cut him loose, they should. Unfortunately, ticket sales would end up tanking worse than they are now.

Just About the Entire NL Central: Aside from the Cardinals and the surprising Brewers, the NL Central is awful. Pittsburgh is pretty not-good, and it says something about the division that they’re in third place. The Reds were supposed to be good, but their pitching is almost as bad as Colorado’s. The Cubs should fire Dusty “Wait until it gets hot outside” Baker and trade Kerry Wood for a closer (NOT DOTEL!) and a bat. And we’ve already discussed the disappointing Astros. This was arguably the best division in baseball before the season began, going possibly three or four teams deep into the pennant race. Now they’re fighting to avoid being the worst.

PREDICTIONS:
NL East: Florida
If Mike Lowell’s bat wakes up and their pitching stays healthy, I think they’ll end the Braves’ run of division titles. It’ll be a hot race, though.

NL Central: St. Louis
No question.

NL West: Dodgers
The top of their rotation is too good, and they just keep finding ways to win. They’re out of first right now, but I think they’ll make it back. The wild card for this team is when they start to put together a run. The sooner, the better.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta
I think they’ve got more than enough to make the postseason, possibly having a better record than the other two division champs. But Florida looks really good.

Divisional: St. Louis over Atlanta, Florida over LA
NLCS: St. Louis over Florida (goes 7, though)

WORLD SERIES:
St. Louis vs. the Angels. And who knows what might happen there?